It's definitely an interesting thought, but figure 1 in the paper shows that the effect was near-identical in the British betting markets (73 percent horse racing bets) and the Euro betting market (69 percent soccer bets). It's possible that there's some sampling problems here, but I don't think it's a horse racing… Read more
Reuben Fischer-Baum
reubenfb
The system doesn't work though; the winning gamblers acted upon the Gambler's Fallacy and over-minimized risk, ending up with the same net returns as gamblers who didn't go on streaks. Read more
That's an interesting thought! I always forget how big of a gender split there is in political views (women went 55-43 for Obama over Romney). Read more
That's not quite what "hot hand" is; it's the idea that if you're winning (or if you just made a shot, etc.) you're more likely to win again. This means that Gambler's Fallacy and Hot Hand are opposing viewpoints, and this research shows that gamblers tend towards acting upon the Gamblers Fallacy (and in doing so… Read more
Tom understands that bears are to be respected and feared. Read more
"Is clutch real?" Read more
I lived in Santa Monica for a summer and would totally move back, assuming I didn't have to return to my shitty Santa Monica internship. Read more
We're right next to each other. Here's where you'd be sitting:
D1 college soccer (Greg) Read more
If everything goes well, hopefully something like four weeks of actual NFL play. Read more
What sort of religious? Read more
It's the same zip code as Eagle Harbor, MI.
Are we looking at the same map? It looks to me like the vast majority of U.S. players are from the Northeast and Midwest, with relatively few from places like California, Texas, and Florida (proportional to their enormous populations). Read more
"So yes, 'intelligent' is used more often for white players than for blacks, but only at the 3 sigma level — barely statistically significant." lol Read more
It's reports from three different sites, so I'd guess that that's Michael Sam three times. Read more
Welcome to Regressing, Deadspin's math-focused sub-blog! This NYTimes Magazine story from 2012 covers the initial "mad scramble" (it continues through the preseason; a very good read). This SI piece covers the Seahawks brochure in more detail as an "it's interesting that they're doing this" move. They might be more… Read more