The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences really doesn't like to rock the boat. Sure, they'll slip a couple surprises into their Oscar nominations, but for winners they're generally more comfortable going with the broadly-appealing, safe, consensus picks.
This means that if you're betting on the Oscars this year, you need to pull your picks from a sample of voters just as unwilling to stray from the flock. I'd recommend SportsNation, a branch of ESPN's media empire where us(!), the fans, get to make our voices heard. Because if there's one place that can generate some real consensus, it's a voting forum for people who spend all their time reading the exact same website, which itself is really not trying to rock any boats nowadays.
Here are SportsNation's picks for the "Big Six" Oscars this year. These are just the early results, we'll keep you updated on any major changes as they come in:
Best Picture
And so it begins. Strong plurality here for Lincoln, a very good, safe movie about one of America's most famous people, directed by one of America's most famous directors, and starring a crazy person (who's one of the world's most famous actors).
Exception: Over 50% of Idahoans own guns, including some people who took the Second Amendment really seriously and actually formed militias. The state is going with military thriller Zero Dark Thirty.
Best Actor
In a landslide vote, SportsNation chooses an unhyphenated "Daniel Day Lewis" from Lincoln.
Exception: After 75 years of Mount Rushmore, South Dakota is apparently tired of seeing Abraham Lincoln's face. The state shows heavy voting for Denzel Washington from Flight.
Best Actress
Take that Lincoln! Speilberg's film had no leading woman, so SportsNation is forced to split its vote between CIA badass Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty and somewhat sports-aware firecracker Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook.
Exception: In 2012, the coast of Mississippi got smacked with its first hurricane since Katrina. The state is going with Naomi Watts from tsunami disaster-epic The Impossible.
Best Supporting Actor
So close, but Christoph Waltz from Django Unchained is narrowly losing out to Tommy Lee Jones from, yes, Lincoln. It was a banner year for white people disapproving of slavery.
Exception: DC, which is actually a three-way split that also includes Robert de Niro from Silver Lining Playbook. DC lives and breathes politics, dammit. It goes to the movies to relax, not watch a film that builds up to a dramatic senate amendment vote.
Best Supporting Actress
Lincoln falls! Sally Fields, who gave maybe the best Oscar speech of all time, is losing out to Anne Hathaway from Les Miserables. Girl's got pipes!
Exception(s): Vermont, West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas, New Mexico, and Alaska don't care about pipes. Also, they like Sally Field. They really do like her.
Best Director
Yeesh.
Exceptions: None.